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Vollständige Version anzeigen : Frage zur Funktion SCHÄTZER


michael_ma
15.07.2014, 20:36
Hallo zusammen,

ich habe eine Frage zu der Funktion SCHÄTZER. Ich schreibe gerade einen Bericht und hatte diese Funktion verwendet aber sie ist mir nicht ganz klar.

Wie im Bild zu sehen, wären es für 2014 18,8% und 2015 16,5%. Warum sinkt mein Prozentualer Wert, wenn er doch 2012 und 2013 weiter steigt. Wäre dann nicht die Tendenz, wie bei 2013 mit 30,30% das er weiter steigt? Aber er fällt. Warum? Habe ich hier einen Verständnisfehler?
Denn auch der Durchnitt (rechts untern) prognistiziert fast 30%

Gruß
Michl

Mc Santa
15.07.2014, 20:57
Hallo,

welche Formel hast du genau in den entsprechenden Zellen stehen?
Kannst du uns das Bild als Exceldatei hochladen?


VG

michael_ma
15.07.2014, 21:08
Hallo Mc Santa,

ist im Anhang

Hasso
15.07.2014, 21:29
Hallo Michl,Warum sinkt mein Prozentualer Wert, wenn er doch 2012 und 2013 weiter steigt.Die Werte von 2012 zu 2013 steigen zwar, aber die Differenz zum Vorjahr, die du ja mit deiner Formel berechnest, sinkt aber.

Mc Santa
15.07.2014, 21:41
Hallo,

ich verstehe es so, dass Excel die Werte nur linear schätzt. Der Prozentwert fällt also ganz automatisch:
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" style="font-family:Calibri,Arial; font-size:11pt; background-color:#ffffff; "> <colgroup><col style="font-weight:bold; width:30px; " /><col style="width:61px;" /><col style="width:28px;" /><col style="width:35px;" /><col style="width:35px;" /><col style="width:42px;" /><col style="width:35px;" /><col style="width:35px;" /><col style="width:42px;" /></colgroup><tr style="background-color:#cacaca; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; font-size:8pt; "><td >&nbsp;</td><td >B</td><td >C</td><td >D</td><td >E</td><td >F</td><td >G</td><td >H</td><td >I</td></tr><tr style="height:18px ;" ><td style="font-size:8pt; background-color:#cacaca; text-align:center; " >1</td><td >Jahr</td><td style="text-align:right; ">1</td><td style="text-align:right; ">2</td><td style="text-align:right; ">3</td><td style="text-align:right; ">4</td><td style="text-align:right; ">5</td><td style="text-align:right; ">6</td><td style="text-align:right; ">7</td></tr><tr style="height:18px ;" ><td style="font-size:8pt; background-color:#cacaca; text-align:center; " >2</td><td >Wert</td><td style="text-align:right; ">500</td><td style="text-align:right; ">1000</td><td style="text-align:right; ">1500</td><td style="text-align:right; ">2000</td><td style="text-align:right; ">2500</td><td style="text-align:right; ">3000</td><td style="text-align:right; ">3500</td></tr><tr style="height:18px ;" ><td style="font-size:8pt; background-color:#cacaca; text-align:center; " >3</td><td >Wachstum</td><td >&nbsp;</td><td style="text-align:right; ">100</td><td style="text-align:right; ">50</td><td style="text-align:right; ">33,33</td><td style="text-align:right; ">25</td><td style="text-align:right; ">20</td><td style="text-align:right; ">16,67</td></tr></table><br /><table style="font-family:Arial; font-size:10pt; border-style: groove ;border-color:#00ff00;background-color:#fffcf9; color:#000000; "><tr><td ><b>Formeln der Tabelle</b></td></tr><tr><td ><table border = "1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2" style="font-family:Arial; font-size:9pt;"><tr style="background-color:#cacaca; font-size:10pt;"><td >Zelle</td><td >Formel</td></tr><tr><td >G2</td><td >=SCH&Auml;TZER(G1;$C2:$F2;$C1:$F1)</td></tr><tr><td >H2</td><td >=SCH&Auml;TZER(H1;$C2:$F2;$C1:$F1)</td></tr><tr><td >I2</td><td >=SCH&Auml;TZER(I1;$C2:$F2;$C1:$F1)</td></tr><tr><td >D3</td><td >=<span style=' color:008000; '>RUNDEN((D2/C2-1)</span>*100;2)</td></tr><tr><td >E3</td><td >=<span style=' color:008000; '>RUNDEN((E2/D2-1)</span>*100;2)</td></tr><tr><td >F3</td><td >=<span style=' color:008000; '>RUNDEN((F2/E2-1)</span>*100;2)</td></tr><tr><td >G3</td><td >=<span style=' color:008000; '>RUNDEN((G2/F2-1)</span>*100;2)</td></tr><tr><td >H3</td><td >=<span style=' color:008000; '>RUNDEN((H2/G2-1)</span>*100;2)</td></tr><tr><td >I3</td><td >=<span style=' color:008000; '>RUNDEN((I2/H2-1)</span>*100;2)</td></tr></table></td></tr></table> <br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial; font-size:9pt; font-weight:bold;background-color:#ffffff; color:#000000; ">Excel Tabellen im Web darstellen &gt;&gt; </span><a style ="font-family:Arial; font-size:9pt; color:#fcf507; background-color:#800040; font-weight:bold;" href="http://www.excel-jeanie-html.de" target="_blank"> Excel Jeanie HTML 4.8 </a>

Hilft dir das?
VG

michael_ma
15.07.2014, 22:33
D.h. also das ich diese Funktion nicht wirklich für eine Prognose verwenden kann oder versteh ich das falsch?

Mc Santa
15.07.2014, 23:14
Hallo,

das kommt ganz darauf an, was du bei deiner Prognose annimmst:

Wenn du annimmst, dass jedes Jahr ein Wachstum um den gleichen absoluten Wert besteht, verwendest du die Funktion wie bisher. (Lineare Schätzung)
Wenn du dagegen annimmst, dass das prozentuale Wachstum fortgeschrieben wird, musst du die Schätzfunktion auch auf die prozentualen Steigungen anwenden. (Exponentiale Schätzung)


Ich habe das einmal für deine Tabelle gemacht und du siehst auch gleich ein Problem bei deinen Werten: (gerundet wird nur für eine bessere Darstellung hier im Forum)
<br/><b><em>Tabelle1</em></b><table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="border-color:#000000; border-width: 1px; font-size:11pt; background-color:#ffffff; padding-left:2pt; padding-right:2pt; "><colgroup><col style="font-weight:bold; width:40px;" /><col style="width:77px;" /><col style="width:77px;" /><col style="width:77px;" /><col style="width:77px;" /><col style="width:77px;" /><col style="width:77px;" /><col style="width:77px;" /><col style="width:77px;" /><col style="width:77px;" /></colgroup><tr style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; "><td>&nbsp;</td><td>C</td><td>D</td><td>E</td><td>F</td><td>G</td><td>H</td><td>I</td><td>J</td><td>K</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">6</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:left; ">Werte</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; "><b>2010</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; "><b>2011</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; "><b>2012</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; "><b>2013</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>2014</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>2015</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>2016</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">7</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">2.843</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">3.233</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">3.484</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">3.995</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#92D050 ;; text-align:center; ">4.518</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#92D050 ;; text-align:center; ">5.132</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#92D050 ;; text-align:center; ">5.856</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">8</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">512</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">902</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">1.477</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">2.567</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#92D050 ;; text-align:center; ">4.333</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#92D050 ;; text-align:center; ">7.262</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#92D050 ;; text-align:center; ">12.084</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">9</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">15535</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">24988</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">27852</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">34435</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFC000 ;; text-align:center; ">32644</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFC000 ;; text-align:center; ">24875</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFC000 ;; text-align:center; ">14328</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">10</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">623</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">1.926</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">5.452</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:center; ">8.866</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFC000 ;; text-align:center; ">9.318</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFC000 ;; text-align:center; ">2.963</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFC000 ;; text-align:center; ">-1227</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">11</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>19513</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>31049</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>38265</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>49863</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>50813</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>40232</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFF99 ;; text-align:center; "><b>31041</b></td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">12</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,591</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,232</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,303</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,019</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">0,792</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">0,772</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,118</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">13</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,161</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">14</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">15</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:left; ">Wachstum</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,137</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,078</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,147</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,131</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,136</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,141</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">16</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,762</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,637</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,738</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,688</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,676</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,664</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">17</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,608</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,115</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,236</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">0,948</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">0,762</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">0,576</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color:#99CCFF; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; ">18</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">3,091</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">2,831</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,626</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">1,051</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">0,318</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">-0,414</td><td style="border-color:#000000; color:#000000; border-color:#000000; background-color:#FFFFFF ;; text-align:right; ">&nbsp;</td></tr></table><br/><table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="border-color:#000000; border-width: 1px;font-size:11pt; background-color:#ffffff; width:800px;padding-left:2pt; padding-right:2pt; "><tr style="background-color:#FFCC66; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; "><td colspan="3" > verwendete Formeln </td><td> </td></tr><tr valign="top" style="background-color:#FFCC66; text-align:center; font-weight:bold; "><td> Zelle </td><td> Formel</td><td> Bereich </td> <td>N/A</td></tr><tr><td>H7:J10</td><td>=RUNDEN(G7*H15;)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>D11:J11</td><td>=SUMME(D7:D10)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>E12:J12</td><td>=RUNDEN(E11/D11;3)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>K12</td><td>=RUNDEN(SUMME(E12:J12)/6;3)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>H13</td><td>=RUNDEN(SUMME(G12:H12)/2;3)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>E15:G18</td><td>=RUNDEN(E7/D7;3)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>H15:J18</td><td>=RUNDEN(SCHÄTZER(H$6;$E15:$G15;$E$6:$G$6);3)</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr></table><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tr style="text-align:left; font-weight:bold; " class="style21"><td style="text-align:left; font-size: xx-small" ><a href="http://excel-inn.de/dateien/vba_beispiele/tabellenanzeige_in_html_addin.zip" >Excel-Inn.de</a></td></tr> <tr style="text-align:left; font-weight:bold; " class="style21"><td style="text-align:left; font-size: xx-small" ><a href='http://Hajo-Excel.de/tools.htm' >Hajo-Excel.de</a></td></tr><tr style="text-align:left; font-weight:bold;" ><td style="text-align:left; font-size: xx-small" >XHTML-Tabelle zur Darstellung in Foren, einschl. der neuen Funktionen ab Version 2007</td></tr><tr style="text-align:left; font-weight:bold; " ><td style="text-align:left; font-size: xx-small" > Add-In-Version 18.01 einschl. 64 Bit</td></tr></table><br/>

Die oberen beiden Datenreihen funktionieren gut, hier ist das Prozentuale Wachstum relativ konstant und kann gut fortgeschrieben werden. Die unteren beiden Reihen jedoch hatten im ersten Jahr ein Massives Wachstum, welches dann abgefallen ist. Auch wenn es danach leicht ansteigt, geht Excel davon aus, dass nicht nur das Wachstum langsamer stattfindet, sondern sogar ein Rückgang zu erwarten ist. Das führt möglicherweise zu sehr unerwarteten Ergebnissen.
Eine Mögliche Lösung wäre vielleicht, die Schätzung erst auf die Werte zu beziehen, nachdem sich die Zahlen einpendeln, dadurch hättest du aber für deine Schätzung nur zwei Werte zur Verfügung.
Ich würde stattdessen das Wachstum von Hand schätzen und Excel die Zahlen berechnen lassen.

Hilft dir diese Erklärung weiter?
VG

michael_ma
15.07.2014, 23:23
Hallo Mc Santa,

danke für deinen ausführlichen Beitrag. Hat mir wirklich sehr geholfen. Ich schätze ich muss das dann von hand eingeben und einen ungefähren Wachstum von ca. 28-30% pro Jahr prognostizieren, denn ein Rückgang entspricht auf keinen Fall der Realität :)

Nochmals vielen Dank


Gruß
Michl